I am always amazed at human hubris when I stare out into space. There is so little we know. And people seem divided into two camps, scared to death or completely enamored (a guess a few don’t give it much thought). Given the revelation by the recent report from the National Academy of Science, the former have reason for feeling that way.
The sun it seems is about to launch into an active period of solar flares. The largest of which could easily disrupt and possibly break down the communication grid we have come to depend on. They are not looking to alarm anyone, merely raise awareness.
“The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) gathered experts from around the country to look at the economic and social costs from these space storms. While they didn’t make any recommendations, the scientists hope their report is a wake-up call.
“We’re not trying to be alarmist,” said Dan Baker, who is the lead author of the report, “but we are trying to show how our systems are interconnected.”"
This has pretty serious potential for huge disruption, but the threat is unpredicatble and unquantifiable. Sound familiar?
This new school, Sigularity University, is backed by Nasa and Google and headed by Ray Kurtzweil, and promotes a strong focus on the future of the most advanced technologies. These technologies, i.e. nanotech, biotech and AI, are growing at an exponential rate and are poised to make huge changes in the way society works.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/feb/03/nasa-google-futurology-kurzweil-singularity
Is this the change we’ve been waiting for?
I might be a little late on this, but when Obama annouced his stimulus plan packed with green inititives the same week that Stern announced the need for the launch of the green economic revolution, it makes you wonder if the world is actually going to come around to these ideas finally.
With some of the biggest politicians making larger cries for these types of changes, the faster the world is going to start to change mindsets about the environment.
Filed under: Environmental | Tags: Climate Change, Geo-engineering, Iron Fertilisation
We all knew it was coming. It is what everybody subconsciously plans to depend on to save their souls in the end. But now it is here.
There was a great ted talk about 14 months ago that concluded that we should begin researching the option now so as to know how to prevent the worng applications later. According to him, climate change has been an issue since the 50s.
That said, the time has come, apparently, to start trying things out. there have been a variety of articles lately related to geo-engineering. recently, the idea of iron fertilisation has been strongly contested as a viable solution. Its detractors claim that it “that the practice could have devastating unintended effects on the oceans, including killing off large areas of sea, and releasing methane and nitrous oxide, which are even more potent causes of global warming. They also fear that the plankton could absorb sunlight, heating up surface waters and hastening climate change.” Then there are “claims by green campaigners that it breaches a UN moratorium on ocean fertilisation.”
All of this seems moot in the light of a new study released from NOAA claiming that cliamte change is largely irreversible for the next 1000 years!
Still scientists abound with the vision of being able to influence the natural cycles and put things back the way they were without destroying the whole ecosystem in the process. As Bob Marley said, ‘Only time will tell….think you’re in heaven, but…”
Filed under: Political | Tags: Climate Change, Global warming, IPCC, Worst Case Scenario
I was amazed to read this WWF report the other day and not have heard any commentary on it earlier. Given that it was published in November, it was likely buried under the news of a new hope in the form of President Obama in the US and a badly disrupted global economy keeping the journalists busy.
Dr. Martin Sommerkorn produced the Global Greenhouse Reality 2008 with some stark evidence.
“Scientific evidence accumulating since the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report reveals that global warming is accelerating, at times far beyond projections outlined in earlier studies, including the latest IPCC Report. New modelling studies are providing updated and more detailed indications of the impacts of continued warming.”
“Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel are growing four times faster since 2000 than during the previous decade (1990-99: 0.9 per cent/yr; 2000-2007: 3.5 per cent/yr), and above IPCC’s worst case emission scenario(A1FI – intensive dependency on fossil fuels) that predicts 4°C global warming (2.4-6.4°C) for 2100 (Global Carbon Project, 2008).” (see page 13’s chart)
Yes, our current reality is ABOVE the worst-case scenario outlined by the IPCC.
Worst cases scenarios are not supposed to be reached or worse, surpassed, they’re a theoretical “what if” area. The IPCC is doing the world a disfavour with watered-down forecasts. While academic reputations may be protected from public ridicule by producing conservative climate reports. Governments and the general public need to hear the whole truth if we are going to be able to respond rationally.
Several new studies continue to make the case that we have the opportunity to avoid the worst consequences of global climatic change. But we need to act sooner than later.
We have a window of opportunity to use this faltering global economy and capitalise on the temporary slowdown in greenhouse gas emissions as industry, development, and consumption levels fall. However, the economic downturn is also affecting clean energy markets and money flows to transition to a low carbon economy, measures including government economic intervention will need to be considered.
Economic intervention is only one of several approaches needed and to get a real handle on the problem. We need to start the conversations about limiting population growth, defining what is responsible consumption, and imbedding an accurate price on externalities such as Carbon emissions.
While the weather here in Scotland may be bringing snow this way, I’m left concerned with the newest droughts and heat waves affecting Australia and Kenya.
The Aussies are getting a 70 year heat record, causing blackouts to hundreds of thousands, buckling public transit railroad tracks in Melbourne, and killing over 20 people so far from bushfires and heat exhaustion. And to make matters even worse, expectations are that this year’s wine crop could see serious losses in productivity.
If that wasn’t bad enough, Kenya’s own current drought conditions are leading to the risk of mass starvation. In a country where corruption runs free and everyday people can’t pay the high food prices being charged by the few vendors with food to sell, very few options remain. Wait and hope for timely foreign aid, begin a migration in the hopes of finding a better world, use violence to meet your needs, or just pass away.
Climate scientists have predicted an upward trend in the frequency of severe weather events for this century, with particular areas such as Australia and Africa being more exposed to the worst conditions. However, the frequency and severity of severe weather events seems to be rising more sharply this decade, let alone this century. Could we have underestimated our expectations?
